This year is the popularization year of LED lighting, and the popularity of LED lighting will accelerate next year. The output value of LED lighting is expected to exceed that of traditional lighting next year, becoming a turning point in the lighting industry. At the same time, the integration of the LED industry has intensified, and there will be more mergers next year.
Ruan Jun, executive deputy secretary-general of the National Semiconductor Lighting Engineering Research and Development and Industry Alliance, told the reporter of "First Financial Daily" yesterday (9th) that the popularization of LED lighting will accelerate in 2015.
"Last year (China's LED lighting products) exported 5.5 billion U.S. dollars. By the third quarter of this year, it had reached 7 billion U.S. dollars. It is expected to exceed 10 billion U.S. dollars for the whole year, achieving a double increase." Ruan Jun said.
Ruan Jun went on to say that China will eliminate incandescent lamps above 60 watts from October 1 this year; the economies of Europe and the United States are recovering, and among several BRICS countries, the Indian government is also promoting the popularization of LED lighting, so the popularization of LED is accelerating. This year, Sunshine Lighting and Foshan Lighting accounted for more than 60% to 70% of LED products.
Donglei Wang, chairman of Dehao Runda and NVC Lighting, also told this reporter: "The popularization of LED lighting will usher in a peak next year. In 2015, NVC's goal is to make 50% of its products LED lighting."
According to the forecast of UBS, the overall growth rate of the global lighting market from 2013 to 2015 is 36%, 37% and 38% respectively, among which the residential LED lighting market demand has increased by 157%, 90% and 62% respectively over the same period.
Zhang Hongbiao, research director of Gaogong LED Research Institute, predicts that the LED industry will have a growth rate of nearly 30% next year, and the growth rate of indoor LED lighting will be as high as 50%~60% next year. "NVC and Opple will account for 50%~60% of LED products next year. These leading companies have a great influence. Therefore, the penetration rate of LED lighting will reach 50% next year, and the penetration rate will further reach 80% in 2017."
"2015 is the year of rapid popularization of LED lighting, which will become a turning point. The output value of LED lighting will exceed that of traditional lighting." Zhang Hongbiao said.
As popularization accelerates, "another problem is competition," Ruan Jun said, "Small and small enterprises are under greater pressure. Industry mergers and acquisitions are a trend."
Zhang Hongbiao also believes that the competition will be more intense next year. This year, many companies have tight cash flow, and some of them are forced to close down due to their declining gross profit margin. "There will be more closures and more mergers next year, because many small and medium-sized enterprises will find it difficult to survive. Many handicraft workshops will close down this year, and larger companies will also close down next year. Recently, a "huge amount" of packaging factories in Guangzhou has closed down, because The quality and price are not as good as listed companies, and the growth of scale and profit has fallen into a regression.”
In recent years, there have been many mergers and acquisitions in the LED industry. Following BDO Runda's acquisition of NVC and Tsinghua Tongfang's acquisition of Zhenmingli, Qinshang Optoelectronics also announced last night (8th) that it will acquire 51% of the equity of three small and medium-sized LED-related companies.
Zhang Hongbiao analyzed that the previous products of Kingsun Optoelectronics were mainly street lamps. With the popularization of civil lighting, it will also penetrate into terminal channels. This year, it has been looking for acquisition targets and has talked with many companies. Among the three small and medium-sized companies acquired by Kingsun Optoelectronics this time, one is transformed from traditional lighting to LED lighting, and has channels; the other is energy-saving certification.
There is more room for mergers and acquisitions in the field of LED chips. Wang Donglei believes that there were 60 to 70 LED chip factories in China at the peak, some of them were not well managed and stopped production, and now there are only more than 20. The investment in LED chip projects is huge. Since most of the LED chip factories are supported by local governments, it is also the most difficult to integrate.
However, "Recently, many (chip) factories have come to me (to talk about mergers)", Wang Donglei revealed. But he believes that most of them will be gradually eliminated naturally, and there are not many that are worth buying. "The integration of LED chips in China and in the world is necessary."
As for the technical direction, Zhang Hongbiao believes that LED technology has undergone great changes, and the upstream, midstream, and downstream technical directions have not yet been determined. Flip-chips are currently only used to replace formal chips in the high-power field, and it remains to be seen whether they can become a trend. Ruan Jun believes that LED flip-chip is the trend, because the efficiency of a single chip is improved and the cost is reduced, but it will take time for packaging factories and customers to accept it.